The Blog of toussaint

Surprise, surprise! Iraq did not meet any of the 18 benchmarks they had agreed to work on with the people who are fighting and dying for their country.   And, they are still planning to take a one month vacation.  Seven Republicans have split from the President and have decided enough is enough on Iraq.  So, what is a president to do to divert attention back to his war?  Well, for one we get the Homeland Security Director to say He has a gut feeling that something bad is going to happen; and we say, The surge just started 2 weeks ago, even though it started in January.  They used to raise the threat level and issue some old tape of Bin Laden to scare us back into place.  Now they have to resort to Chertoff getting gas.  How weak their arguments have become, especially in light of a new report that came out yesterday that says Al Qaeda is back at full pre-9/11 strength.  So, you're not worried enough to want to stay in Iraq?  OK, we'll ground a plane to make you remember that horrible day and then release later that it was nothing, oops.  Wakey, wakey... these are just old tricks done with no flair.  But sadly, we are still 10 Republican votes away from stopping this mess.
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Totally off the subject,  if there are any of you who trade the stock market on a regular basis i have another warning for you.  First my credentials: i'm an econ/finance major who used to day trade the market for 3 years.  i watched the market from open to close everyday, taking copious notes to try to figure out trends.  i studied the markets history from the beginning; i even had a chart of the market's complete history taped to my wall so that i could see the big picture.  i'll tell you a few things i learned.  One, don't day trade!  While it is possible to call the markets next move it is almost impossible to do so on a day to day basis without being lucky.  But you can see the next move coming if you keep track of all the data and put that data into a historical light.  One trend that never fails is that the markets don't like uncertainty and usually go into a holding pattern before Presidential elections.  You take that plus the trouble in the housing market, plus the weak retail sales, plus weak GDP and high oil prices and you get a market that should be moving sideways or down.  Currently the market is moving on a big up swing,  too big to be maintained.  They will soon reach a top of 14,000-14,300 and then the market will be forced to test the lows.  If this happens, the market will slowly go down to 12,500-12,000 (this is about a 15-20% drop and that would be serious).  The market usually does not regain its footing until 6 months into the next presidential term.  So if i am right, we are looking at a 2 year slump in the market.  But of course all this could change if some major unforeseeable event happens, but those kind of events usually hit the market and make it go down.  The market has a way of seeing the good stuff coming a mile away but has a blind spot for the bad. i suggest you put your money into bonds and money market funds that are currently underperfoming.  Warning !